Background

This report provides a brief summary of the weekly ensemble forecast from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub based on forecasts submitted on July 12, 2021. In collaboration with the US CDC, our team aggregates COVID-19 forecasts from dozens of teams around the globe. Typically on Wednesday of each week, a summary of the week’s forecasts from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub appear on the official CDC COVID-19 forecasting page.

Every week, teams submit their forecasts to the COVID-19 Forecast Hub. This past week, 50 models were submitted.

Each Monday evening or Tuesday morning, we combine the most recent forecasts from each team into a single “ensemble” forecast of reported COVID-19 cases at the county, state, and national level and deaths at the state and national level. At the moment, we only generate ensemble forecasts for four weeks into the future, as the available evidence suggests that models are less accurate at longer forecast horizons.

An archive of weekly reports from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub can be found at this page.

COVID-19 Forecasts

National level

This week, our ensemble combined forecasts from 40 different models.

At the national level, the ensemble model predicts that weekly totals of observed deaths in each of the next four weeks will be between 1,600 and 1,700 deaths with around 614,100 deaths by August 07 (95% prediction interval: 611,174 - 619,141).

For the week ending August 07, the ensemble forecasts that reported COVID-19 deaths in the US will be between 800 and 3,900 (95% prediction interval: 760 - 3,915) and COVID-19 cases in the US will be between 54,300 and 382,800 (95% prediction interval: 54,256 - 382,752).

For August 09, 2021 COVID-19 daily hospitalizations in the US will be between 2,100 and 10,800 (95% prediction interval: 2,081 - 10,780).

You can explore the full set of models, including their forecasts for past weeks online at our interactive forecast visualization.

Deaths

Hospitalizations

Cases

State level

The ensemble model estimates that 33 states and territories of the US have a greater than 50% chance of having more deaths in the next two weeks compared to the past two weeks.The model forecasts that 3 states and territories have a greater than 75% chance of an increase over the next two weeks (Delaware, American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands).

The sortable and searchable table below shows the total number of reported COVID-19 deaths at the US level and by state over the last two weeks (ending Saturday, July 10, 2021) and the forecasted counts for the subsequent two weeks (ending July 24, 2021).

Looking at the rates allows for easier comparison across states, where you can see which states have had or are predicted to have proportionally higher rates in comparison to other states.

When interpreting probability of an increase, it’s important to note that the increase or decrease is relative to the location-specific recent observed incidence, which varies across locations.

Death rates

The sortable and searchable death table below shows the total number of reported COVID-19 deaths at the US level and by state as of Saturday, July 10, 2021 (“Total COVID-19 Deaths”) as well as the rate of reported COVID-19 deaths in the population (standardized per 100,000 population) over the last two weeks and over the next two weeks.

Hospitalization rates

The sortable and searchable hospitalization table below shows the 7 day average hospitalization count and rate of reported COVID-19 hospitalization in the population (standardized per 100,000 population) over the last week (July 04, 2021 to July 10, 2021) and two weeks ahead (July 18, 2021 to July 24, 2021).

Case rates

The sortable and searchable case table below shows the weekly case count and rate of reported COVID-19 case in the population (standardized per 100,000 population) over the last week (July 04, 2021 to July 10, 2021) and two weeks ahead (July 18, 2021 to July 24, 2021).

Methods & Acknowledgement

This report was reproducibly and dynamically generated using RMarkdown. The code for the report can be found here.