The COVID-19 Forecast Hub
This site maintains the authoritative, up-to-date record for forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalizations in the US, created by dozens of leading infectious disease modeling teams from around the globe, in coordination with the US CDC.
Every week dozens of modeling teams from across the globe submit forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US to our forecast data repository. In collaboration with the US CDC, we take these data and build a single ensemble forecast which is later analyzed by, and communicated to the general public by CDC.
Public health impact
We work collaboratively in an open-science framework, welcoming participation from modeling teams around the globe to submit predictions from their best COVID-19 models.
In the news
All together now: the most trustworthy covid-19 model is an ensemble
MIT Technology Review | 28 May 2021
Herd Immunity Is Humanity’s Great Hope, and It’s Proving Elusive
Bloomberg Businessweek | 22 April 2021
A 4th COVID-19 Surge May Be Starting. How Bad Could It Get?
NPR | 2 April 2021
‘We’re skating on a knife’s edge right now’: Scientists worry US could be headed for yet another COVID-19 surge
USA Today | 30 March 2021
More than 90,000 could die of Covid-19 in next three weeks, CDC forecast shows
CNN | 14 January 2021
UMass model sees cases continuing to climb into early January
The Boston Globe | 15 December 2020