The COVID-19 Forecast Hub
This site maintains the authoritative, up-to-date record for forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalizations in the US, created by dozens of leading infectious disease modeling teams from around the globe, in coordination with the US CDC.
Every week dozens of modeling teams from across the globe submit forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US to our forecast data repository. In collaboration with the US CDC, we take these data and build a single ensemble forecast which is later analyzed by, and communicated to the general public by CDC.
Public health impact
We work collaboratively in an open-science framework, welcoming participation from modeling teams around the globe to submit predictions from their best COVID-19 models.
In the news
U.S. covid death toll hits 1,500 a day amid delta scourge
Washington Post | 3 September 2021
COVID-19 hospitalizations could hit 32,000 a day, CDC forecast says
Q 13 Fox Seattle | 18 August 2021
Delta’s peak is difficult to project, but could come this month
The Hill | 4 August 2021
Competing models at start of pandemic hurt public’s trust
Minneapolis Star Tribune | 17 July 2021
What Data Scientists Learned by Modeling the Spread of Covid-19
Smithsonian Magazine | 11 June 2021
All together now: the most trustworthy covid-19 model is an ensemble
MIT Technology Review | 28 May 2021