The COVID-19 Forecast Hub
This site maintains the authoritative record for real-time forecasts of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the US, as well as archival forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths, created by dozens of leading infectious disease modeling teams from around the globe, in coordination with the US CDC.
Every week dozens of modeling teams from across the globe submit forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US to our forecast data repository. In collaboration with the US CDC, we take these data and build a single ensemble forecast which is later analyzed by, and communicated to the general public by CDC.
Public health impact
COVID-19 Forecast Hub data are used by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the data journalism site FiveThirtyEight. Through these channels, and our public data repository, our work serves as a vital source of public information about where the outbreak is headed.
We work collaboratively in an open-science framework, welcoming participation from modeling teams around the globe to submit predictions from their best COVID-19 models.
In the news
Computer Forecasts, Expert Judgment, And ‘Chimeric Forecasting’ Of Infectious Diseases
Forbes | 21 November 2022
For now, wary US treads water with transformed COVID-19
AP | 3 July 2022
CDC Says COVID Hospitalizations to Rise in Most States
WebMD | 19 May 2022
New White House Covid projection puzzles experts and catches some Biden officials off guard
CNN | 12 May 2022
Gov. Tim Walz, Janet Malcolm urge second COVID-19 booster shots for summer
Star Tribune | 4 May 2022
A devastating milestone looms: 1 million US deaths from COVID-19
Boston Globe | 28 April 2022