Since 2016, our team has worked closely with the US CDC on forecasting seasonal influenza outbreaks in a project called FluSight. This collaborative research framework has served as a model for setting up the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.

This collaborative network has published numerous peer-reviewed research articles on infectious disease forecasting that provide a solid foundation for understanding how to best forecast outbreaks. For example, our work has found that there was not a large difference in predictive performance between mechanistic and statistical models of seasonal influenza outbreaks. We also showed modest but measurable improvements in accuracy when using an ensemble forecast to forecast influenza.

Partial list of relevant publications from our team: